
The US sanctioned Russia's top oil companies and the EU moved to ban Russian LNG. Britain had sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil the week before, and Brent rose to about $64 after the US measures.
Losing Russian LNG to Europe tightens gas supply and supports natural gas prices, which feed into fertilizer and processing costs. Crude gains also add to energy input costs.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
US sanctions on Russia's top oil firms plus the EU LNG ban raised supply-disruption risk and lifted Brent on Oct 22.
US sanctions on top Russian oil firms plus the EU's Russian LNG ban tighten energy supply and lifted Brent.