
Oil prices settled at seven-week highs on Monday on worries that Iranian exports could decline as the government cracks down on anti-government demonstrations. Expected supply increases from Venezuela limited the gains, and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites added to supply concerns.
Potential losses of Iranian and Russian barrels support crude prices, which raises diesel and transport costs for feed buyers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent settled at a seven-week high on Jan 12 on fears of lower Iranian exports and Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy sites, adding to the week's rally.