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The OECD's 2024 review of Ukraine's agricultural policy reports that producer support has been low or negative for decades, averaging -0.03% of gross farm receipts in 2021-23. Russia's war continues to depress agricultural production, which was below its 2021 level in 2023.
Reduced Ukrainian production capacity and weak producer support constrain export supply of oats, sunflower and milk, which supports prices for alternative origins.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 34 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +3.5%), and +1.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
