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ANZ analysts said Australian seasonal conditions have been excellent, with strong pasture supporting livestock and dairy producers. They also said Ukraine, a major corn, wheat and sunflower oil exporter, is affected by the Russian invasion and that agricultural prices remain historically high.
Ukraine's export disruption tightens world corn, wheat and sunoil supply, supporting feed-grain and vegoil prices, while strong Australian pasture trims near-term supplementary feed demand.
anz.com.auMark Bennett, Michael Whitehead Head of Aus Agribusiness, Head of FBA Insights, ANZFeb 28, 2022After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
