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The NCGA Q2 outlook says fertilizer markets are in turmoil after the Strait of Hormuz closure, with global urea prices jumping about 40% and US retail prices catching up. Input costs are rising on already high levels just as acreage decisions are made.
Sustained fertilizer cost increases may reduce US corn acreage or application rates, tightening corn supply and supporting prices.
ncga.comNational Corn Growers AssociationApr 1, 2026After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
