The Ukraine Conflict and Other Factors Contributing to High Commodity Prices and Food Insecurity

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 27, 2023Regional war, global consequences: Mounting damages to Ukraine’s agriculture and growing challenges for global food security | IFPRI+10.6%
• Apr 8, 2022Food commodity prices hit unprecedented highs as Ukraine crisis festers-2.0%
• Mar 2, 2022Wheat Prices Shoot to 14-Year High on Concerns over Conflict Between Russia and Ukraine - AgWeb+6.9%
• Apr 27, 2022US wheat prices surge in wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict - High Plains Journal-1.9%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+1.7%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 27, 2023Regional war, global consequences: Mounting damages to Ukraine’s agriculture and growing challenges for global food security | IFPRI+1.6%
• Apr 8, 2022Food commodity prices hit unprecedented highs as Ukraine crisis festers-0.7%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+2.4%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-1.9%
• May 25, 2022War in Ukraine to take large volumes of Black Sea wheat and corn off market in both current and next seasons – S&P Global Commodity Insights-2.8%

After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Apr 8, 2022Food commodity prices hit unprecedented highs as Ukraine crisis festers-0.1%
• Nov 6, 2024Ukraine: Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation 2024 | OECD+2.9%
• Jun 15, 2025FACTBOX: Agriculture, metal markets wary of trade routes as Israel-Iran conflict heats up+4.7%
• Feb 28, 2026What the Iran attack means for oil, fertilizer and ag commodities - Pro Farmer+4.6%
• Apr 2, 2026Commodities market update: unrest and high prices • De Molenaar+1.8%

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Jun 9, 2023The Ukraine Crisis and India’s Fertiliser Security - MP-IDSA+2.0%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+3.0%
• Mar 21, 2022Fertiliser prices hit new highs as multiple problems affect global supplies | Food security | The Guardian+2.5%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-3.9%
• Mar 31, 2022Exposure to the Russia-Ukraine conflict - BC Insight-1.0%