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An MP-IDSA commentary argues that the Russia-Ukraine war and Black Sea disruptions have strained global food security and fertiliser supply. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen, potash and phosphate fertilisers, and prices escalated in the early months of the conflict.
India has responded with the One Nation One Fertiliser scheme, subsidies and increased imports of Russian fertiliser.
Tight nitrogen and other fertiliser supplies raise crop input costs and can reduce future grain and oilseed output, which supports feed ingredient prices over time. The import shifts described also shape which exporters capture Indian demand.
idsa.inRicha KumariaJun 9, 2023After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
