
StoneX's Josh Linville says urea prices in New Orleans rose from $350 to $430 per ton in under six weeks despite improving global supply. He attributes the move to geopolitical risk premiums tied to Iran and Russia rather than confirmed supply losses.
Manufacturers and distributors are still holding pricing power.
Elevated urea prices lift nitrogen input costs for US corn growers, which can weigh on corn margins and feed production costs.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.