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Oil prices fell as much as 30% after Saudi Arabia launched a price war against Russia, its former OPEC+ ally. Riyadh raised production and cut crude prices after Russia refused deeper output cuts, with Brent dropping to $31.02 and WTI to $27.71 at the lows.
Saudi discounting and output increases create a lasting oversupply during a demand slump, pressuring crude and related energy markets. Weaker energy prices reduce biofuel feedstock demand and ethanol margins, bearish for vegetable oils and corn.
ft.comAnjli Raval, David SheppardMar 9, 2020After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Saudi Arabia launched a price war, raising output and cutting prices, and Brent fell as much as 30% on March 9, directly driving the move.
It explains Saudi Arabia's higher output and lower prices after Russia refused cuts, which pushed Brent to the lows.
