
Oil prices crashed in Asia by around 30% on Monday as Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices after Russia refused deep OPEC-backed production cuts. Brent fell to a low of $31.02 a barrel, near a 16-year low.
Expectations that producers will pump more to gain market share signal an oversupplied market, bearish for crude and energy-linked feed input values.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent crashed about 30% in Asia on March 9 after Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices following Russia's refusal to cut output.
Describes the Asian-session crash on March 9 as Saudi Arabia cut selling prices after Russia refused deep cuts, directly matching the move's timing and cause.
Brent fell to about $31 in Asia as producers started a price war after Russia refused deep cuts, directly reflecting the supply shock.