
Oil crashed the most in 29 years as Saudi Arabia and Russia vowed to pump more in a battle for market share. The IEA described an unprecedented combination of supply and demand shock as coronavirus drove the first fall in demand since 2009.
A simultaneous supply surge and demand collapse points to sustained lower crude prices, which pressures biofuel economics and vegetable oil prices and dampens farm-input energy costs.
After 464 past geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.5%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.