Crude palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia closed lower on September 22 as Brent crude fell about 2.8% to near US$98 per barrel. Reports that Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days eased supply-disruption concerns.
The October contract fell RM49 to RM4,639 per tonne.
Lower crude weakens biodiesel economics and palm's energy-linked support, pushing palm and related vegetable oils lower. The Hormuz reopening outlook adds downside risk to energy-linked demand.
After 12 past bearish geopolitics events, Palm Oil moved a median -4.5% over 5 sessions (17% higher; middle half -5.9% to -2.3%), and -6.2% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.