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US crude futures fell more than 4% on Tuesday to their lowest close since December, erasing all 2024 gains. Reports that Libya's rival governments could reach a deal to restore output, plus possible OPEC+ supply returns in October, weighed on prices alongside weak Chinese and US manufacturing data.
Expectations of returning Libyan and OPEC+ barrels plus softer demand signals point to ample supply and lower crude prices. Weaker energy prices reduce biofuel feedstock support for soybean oil and corn.
cnbc.comSpencer KimballSep 3, 2024After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, SBO moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
WTI fell over 4% on the same day on Libya deal reports, possible OPEC+ supply returns and weak manufacturing data, the same drivers as Brent.
WTI fell over 4% on Libya deal reports, possible OPEC+ supply returns and weak manufacturing data, matching the same move.
WTI's 4% fall on Libya deal reports and weak manufacturing data moved in tandem with Brent, confirming the Sept 3 selloff.
