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Restricted trade through the Strait of Hormuz after the start of a US-Iran war has pushed fertilizer futures sharply higher. CBOT-traded Gulf urea May 2026 closed at $681/ton on March 19, up $276 (68%) since end of February, while Gulf DAP rose about 6%.
Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs ahead of planting raise the risk of reduced corn acreage and tighter farm margins, which can shift demand for feed grains and affect feed input costs.
ncga.comMar 23, 2026After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
