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Exporters report war-linked bunker fuel surcharges and higher diesel costs for inland truck and rail moves are raising US agricultural export costs. Shippers say the surcharges may add tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars and expect costs to keep rising while the conflict continues.
Higher export logistics costs reduce US competitiveness and dampen global demand for US farm exports, pressuring US origin basis and export-linked grain and oilseed prices.
spglobal.comBill MongelluzzoMay 7, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
