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NatWest's Trade Tracker says a Israel-Hamas ceasefire may ease Red Sea shipping problems and potentially boost trade. It notes Red Sea rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope has sharply cut traffic through Suez and Bab el-Mandeb.
The report also flags uncertainty from new U.S. tariff policy, which it expects to weigh on 2025 trade volumes.
A Red Sea reopening would release vessel capacity and lower freight costs on Asia-Europe routes. Tariff risk to trade volumes could reduce demand for feed grains and oilseeds, adding downside pressure to prices.
natwest.comFeb 18, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
