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US air strikes on Iran and Tehran's retaliation raised concerns about diesel and nitrogen costs for spring planting. Shipping companies suspended Strait of Hormuz operations, while front-month corn, soybean and wheat futures fell on profit-taking as oil and diesel rose.
Higher diesel and fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins and raise future feed-grain production costs, while the near-term grain futures decline reflects profit-taking rather than a supply change.
dtnpf.comChris ClaytonMar 2, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
March 2 coverage of shipping suspensions through Hormuz and rising diesel and nitrogen input cost concerns supports the supply-risk narrative, though it is less price-specific.
Suspension of Hormuz shipping and higher diesel and nitrogen input costs ahead of planting supported urea buying and prices.
