From war to weather, Australian farmers are planting spring crops in an uncertain world

After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.

• Mar 26, 2026U.S. farmers worry about fertilizer supply due to war with Iran : NPR+10.4%
• Jul 2, 2025Farmers Can't Catch a Break: Fertilizer Prices, Compared to Corn Prices, Are Now Some of the Worst in History - AgWeb+6.1%
• Sep 28, 2022How the war in Ukraine is affecting the world's supply of fertilizer : NPR-5.3%
• Feb 26, 2022Russia-Ukraine conflict could add pressure to Australia's 'skyrocketing' farm costs - ABC News+14.5%
• Jul 2, 2026Iran war: From fertilizer to food crisis? | IFPRI+2.7%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• May 1, 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why-7.3%
• Mar 2, 2026US-Iran Escalation Could Drive Up Input Costs as Spring Planting Season Hits+36.4%
• Mar 28, 2022Cattle market frustrates, but fundamentals are better this spring – The Seam-18.2%
• Mar 3, 2026Iran War Sends Diesel Prices Soaring All Over the World on Supply Chokepoints - Bloomberg+17.7%
• Mar 18, 2026Ag shippers face rising diesel costs, and farmers could share the bill | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.8%