Ag shippers face rising diesel costs, and farmers could share the bill

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 4, 2026US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict | Reuters+12.2%
• Feb 28, 2026What the Iran attack means for oil, fertilizer and ag commodities - Pro Farmer+35.6%
• Nov 30, 2019FreightWaves oil report: here are the oil and diesel numbers that OPEC faces this week - FreightWaves+3.6%
• Feb 20, 2025The Commodities Feed: EU agrees on another Russian sanctions package | articles | ING THINK-5.1%
• Mar 5, 2026How the Iran war could create a ‘fertiliser shock’ – an often ignored global risk to food prices and farming+16.5%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Oct 28, 2025The Commodities Feed: Sanction concerns boost diesel prices | ING THINK-1.4%
• May 1, 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why-7.3%
• Mar 4, 2026US diesel hits $4 per gallon as fuel costs rise amid escalating Middle East conflict | Reuters+6.1%
• Sep 21, 2026Global diesel disruptions ripple through US refining, biofuel markets | S&P Global-5.7%
• Jul 16, 2026Sharp Drop in Diesel Supplies Threatens to Rev Up Inflation Again - WSJ+4.3%