
AgWeb reports that closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up US farm input costs, including on-farm diesel which is approaching record March 2022 levels and is more than $1 above last year. Urea prices are reported up 39%, with a quarter of global fertilizer supplies passing through the strait.
Higher diesel and nitrogen costs squeeze farm margins and may reduce corn acreage, which tends to support feed grain prices over the medium term.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, DIESEL moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, WTI moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.