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The Iran conflict is disrupting Gulf fertilizer production and export routes as the Northern Hemisphere application season approaches. Qatar shut LNG production at its largest facility after a drone attack, Egyptian granular urea rose $60/t, and New Orleans March barge urea rose $60-80/t.
Natural gas feedstock losses and Gulf export disruption tighten global urea supply, lifting nitrogen costs and supporting feed-grain prices.
freshplaza.comMar 3, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Gulf fertilizer production and export disruption plus Qatar LNG shutdown directly tightened urea supply, lifting Egyptian and New Orleans prices on the move date.
