
Yara, one of the world's largest fertilizer makers, is curtailing ammonia and urea output at its Ferrara, Italy and Le Havre, France plants because of a surge in natural gas prices. The company expects its European ammonia and urea production to run at about 45% of capacity by the end of that week.
Cutting European nitrogen output tightens global urea and ammonia supply, since Europe must now import more, which supports fertilizer prices and raises costs for grain and feed producers.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.