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An IFPRI analysis examines whether agricultural and fertilizer exemptions in sanctions on Russia and Belarus are working. It notes that many companies and countries are reluctant to trade with either country despite those exemptions.
Trade reluctance around Russian and Belarusian fertilizer and grain can keep potash and nitrogen supplies constrained, supporting prices.
ifpri.orgJoseph Glauber, David LabordeNov 9, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
