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Belarus announced it will ban transit of oil and chemical products, including fertilizers, from Lithuania effective February 7, retaliating for Lithuania's halt of potash transit. The affected products total 1.6 million tonnes a year, worth over $1 billion.
Blocking fertilizer and chemical transit through Lithuania further restricts potash and fertilizer logistics out of Belarus, tightening global nutrient supply.
reuters.comFeb 2, 2022Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
