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Fertiliser prices have risen nearly 30% since the start of 2022, after an 80% surge in 2021. Urea has surpassed its 2008 peak, and phosphate and potash are approaching 2008 levels.
Drivers include high gas and coal costs, sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and Chinese export restrictions.
Sanctions and Chinese export curbs are restricting supply of urea, DAP and potash, keeping prices high. Buyers face elevated input costs that are likely to persist into next season.
vinachem.com.vnJul 13, 2022After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
