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A Vinachem review says China and Russia dominate global fertilizer supply, raising food security concerns. It cites 20,000 tonnes of Russian fertilizer trapped in Rotterdam that the UN helped release for Malawi.
The IMF lists 48 nations at risk from fertilizer and food cost shocks.
Concentration of fertilizer supply in Russia, Belarus and China keeps geopolitical risk premium in nutrient prices and encourages policy moves toward strategic supply. Ongoing supply-security concerns support firmer input costs.
vinachem.com.vnApr 24, 2023After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
