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Fertilizer prices are climbing again amid geopolitical tensions around major producers China and Russia. Export restrictions imposed by Beijing are adding to supply constraints.
Tighter fertilizer supply raises farm input costs and could push up food prices. Continued export curbs point to firm fertilizer prices.
asia.nikkei.comSATOSHI SHIMODANov 3, 2025After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated Nov 3, it highlights Chinese export restrictions as a supply constraint pushing fertilizer prices higher, reinforcing bullish sentiment on the day.
