CME feeder cattle futures neared a one-month low as grain futures rallied on unconfirmed reports that Russian missiles entered NATO member Poland. Corn, wheat and soybean futures gained on fears of escalating geopolitical tension.
Live cattle were mixed and wholesale beef prices were mixed, with Choice up and Select down.
Higher corn, wheat and soybean prices raise feed costs for livestock producers and tend to weigh on feeder cattle values. The geopolitical risk also adds volatility to grain markets.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.