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Grain and soy futures ended mostly lower on October 4 amid heavy selling in crude oil and rumors that Russia is willing to re-enter the Black Sea grain deal. December corn fell 1.5 cents to $4.86, and December SRW wheat settled at $5.60.
Soybean oil fell 114 points as crude dropped sharply.
A steep crude oil drop weakens the biofuel link that supports soybean oil and corn, while Russian Black Sea deal rumors add downside pressure on wheat. Feed buyers should expect softer grain and oilseed prices if these trends hold.
profarmer.comPro Farmer EditorsOct 3, 2023profarmer.comPro Farmer EditorsOct 4, 2023After 10 past bearish geopolitics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 14 past geopolitics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -1.3% to -0.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Soybean oil fell on Oct 4 as crude dropped sharply, showing the crude-to-soyoil link via biofuel demand, though this predates the Oct 9 move by several sessions.
