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Soybeans have become the focal point of rising U.S.-China trade tensions, with China reportedly studying restrictions on U.S. soybean imports in retaliation for U.S. tariffs on washing machines and solar panels. China buys about a third of the U.S. soybean crop, largely for its hog herd.
Analysts describe soybean curbs as a worst-case scenario for Beijing given pork's importance to consumers.
A possible Chinese soybean import curb would remove a large share of U.S. export demand, pressuring soybean and meal prices. Feed costs for hog and poultry producers could shift depending on how the dispute develops.
farmprogress.comBloombergFeb 15, 2018After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 17 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
