World Bank says Ukraine war may prompt grain shortages in poor countries

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters-0.7%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-2.3%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+9.4%
• Mar 21, 2022Ukraine could lose $6 bln in grain exports with ports blocked | Reuters+15.8%
• Jul 15, 2023Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia's war matters to the world | AP News+2.4%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Apr 15, 2022Ukraine says grain on ships in blocked Black Sea ports may deteriorate | Reuters+2.1%
• Apr 6, 2022A fertilizer shortage, worsened by war in Ukraine, is driving up global food prices and scarcity-1.9%
• Feb 25, 2022Grain exporters tap EU supplies as war shuts Ukraine ports -traders+6.6%
• Mar 21, 2022Ukraine could lose $6 bln in grain exports with ports blocked | Reuters+1.5%
• Jul 15, 2023Why allowing Ukraine to ship grain during Russia's war matters to the world | AP News-8.6%

After 12 past bullish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.5% to +6.8%), and +5.4% over 20.

• Mar 25, 2022The feed factor: Global maize shortage could affect local rice market | The Business Standard-0.0%
• Jul 6, 2022Wheat shortages bode well for Vietnamese rice+2.4%
• Sep 25, 2026What’s Behind the Latest Surge in Grain and Oilseed Prices?-0.3%
• Apr 30, 2026From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times+12.1%
• May 1, 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why+8.1%