Wheat shortages bode well for Vietnamese rice

After 12 past bullish geopolitics events, Rough Rice moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.5% to +6.8%), and +5.4% over 20.

• May 1, 2026Thai and Vietnamese farmers may stop planting rice because of the Iran war. Here’s why+8.1%
• Mar 25, 2022The feed factor: Global maize shortage could affect local rice market | The Business Standard-0.0%
• Mar 16, 2022World Bank says Ukraine war may prompt grain shortages in poor countries-1.0%
• Apr 30, 2026From surplus to strain: Iran war and El Nino threaten global rice supply - The Japan Times+12.1%
• Mar 17, 2022Rice Prices Rise in Asia Amid Stockpiling, Conflict - Laotian Times+0.8%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Feb 25, 2022UK wheat prices rise sharply in volatile market - Farmers Weekly+9.4%
• Jul 14, 2026Wheat surges as war weather and short covering collide | Saxo+4.5%
• Mar 26, 2020Win for farmers as 'toilet roll effect' hits wheat prices+1.9%
• Aug 31, 2026Wheat: Black Sea risks are driving up wheat prices+2.2%
• Jul 29, 2026Wheat up 1%, rises for second session on Black Sea disruptions | ZAWYA-1.4%