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Russia's July wheat exports were 1.6 million tonnes, the lowest July figure in nine years and half the five-year average, despite large Russian wheat stocks. Revived Russia-Ukraine hostilities have added risk premium to wheat prices, offsetting northern hemisphere harvest pressure.
Heat damage to EU and US crops and El Niño concerns also add support.
Shipping disruption combined with weather concerns tightens export balance sheets and supports wheat prices, although large carryover stocks limit the rally during harvest.
crmagri.comMike VerdinAug 10, 2026After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
