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Worldwide shipping remains disrupted following the pandemic, with lockdowns in China still hampering trade. Russia's war in Ukraine has idled Europe's breadbasket and limited ship transit through the Black Sea.
Great Lakes grain shipments through the St. Lawrence Seaway are increasing compared with 2021, while iron-ore shipments are lower.
Black Sea disruption tightens global wheat and corn export availability, supporting feed grain prices, while higher fuel costs add to freight expenses.
agupdate.comJason MaloneyJul 7, 2022After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
