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Renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have led some tankers carrying middle distillates to divert around the Cape of Good Hope, while others still transit Bab el-Mandeb. The Houthis announced they will target US vessels in addition to Israeli-linked ships, and US forces launched air strikes on Houthi areas in Yemen.
Longer routing lifts freight costs and fuel demand for distillate and tanker trades, supporting diesel and crude prices through higher shipping costs and tighter prompt supply.
argusmedia.comApr 2, 2025After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
