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FreightWaves reports that the DOE/EIA weekly retail diesel average rose 21.8 cents to $4.796 a gallon, ending nine straight weekly declines. ULSD futures climbed more than 20% in six trading days to $3.8236 a gallon as Strait of Hormuz traffic slowed sharply.
The end of the decline and the rise in ULSD futures suggest retail diesel will keep climbing, which feeds into fuel surcharges and trucking rates for feed deliveries. Hormuz disruption also keeps crude risk premiums elevated.
freightwaves.comJohn KingstonJul 14, 2026After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
ULSD futures rose over 20% in six sessions as Hormuz traffic slowed and Russia's ban hit, describing the driver of the rally including the July 13 move.
