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Chicago grains and soy ended the week higher on May 5, 2023, as Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN failed to authorize any new vessels under the Black Sea grain export deal. Wheat and corn posted their first weekly gains in three weeks after falling to two-year and nine-month lows.
Russia had said it would not extend the pact beyond May 18 unless its demands on food and fertilizer exports were met.
Uncertainty over Ukrainian grain exports through the Black Sea tightens expected supply and supports wheat and corn prices. Buyers should expect volatility until the corridor's future is settled.
reuters.comCassandra GarrisonMay 5, 2023After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 72 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -1.0% to +2.5%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
