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An opinion piece examines how the EU could respond if Jair Bolsonaro, who led Brazil's first-round presidential vote, pursues policies weakening Amazon protection and indigenous rights. It argues trade is the EU's main leverage given its major investment in Brazil.
Possible EU trade pressure on Brazilian exports, or Brazilian expansion into Amazon land, could affect soybean and beef supply expectations, but the outcome is speculative.
fern.orgNicole PolstererOct 26, 2018After 20 past neutral geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 156 past neutral events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
