◂ Event Timeline

Mar 29, 2022GEOPOLITICSBrazil

Brazil hopes to be the corn market saviour

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has halted shipments from Ukrainian ports indefinitely, which has pushed global buyers to seek nearby corn supplies. This has increased the importance of Brazil's safrinha crop, which makes up about three-quarters of Brazil's corn output.

WHY IT MATTERS

Loss of Ukrainian export supply raises demand for Brazilian corn and lifts global corn and wheat prices.

AFFECTSCorn▲Wheat (SRW)▲

SOURCE
graincentral.comGuest AuthorMar 29, 2022

Price reaction & history

Corn▲bullishSO FAR1d -1.8%5d +2.7%20d +4.0%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

Sep 17, 2019Daily Market Wire 17 September 2019 - Grain Central+1.7%
Oct 31, 2022Daily Market Wire 1 November 2022 - Grain Central-2.2%
Jun 30, 2022Expect China to Import Brazilian Corn | Feed & Grain+1.0%
Dec 4, 2018Don’s party adjourned Azov the weekend - Grain Central+0.5%
Oct 30, 2022Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt-2.2%

Wheat (SRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.7%5d -9.0%20d -3.6%

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

Sep 17, 2019Daily Market Wire 17 September 2019 - Grain Central+2.4%
Oct 31, 2022Daily Market Wire 1 November 2022 - Grain Central-5.6%
Dec 4, 2018Don’s party adjourned Azov the weekend - Grain Central-0.3%
Oct 30, 2022Grain market braces for price flurry as Black Sea corridor in doubt-5.6%
Oct 3, 2017Black Sea attacks revive fears of grain market turmoil - The Daily+4.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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