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Russia seized three Ukrainian naval vessels attempting to enter the Sea of Azov on November 25, and tensions have continued in the Black Sea region. Disruptions to grain movement have so far been minimal.
Ukraine's Azov ports Mariupol and Berdyansk handle only a small share of its grain.
Any escalation at the Kerch Strait could disrupt Black Sea grain shipments and lift wheat and corn prices, though current impacts remain limited.
graincentral.comGuest AuthorDec 4, 2018After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
