Grain export corridor update, Russia resumes: Grain market daily

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 26, 2022Turkey in talks with Russia, Ukraine over grain-export corridor-1.9%
• May 31, 2022Turkey, Russia to discuss Ukraine exports corridor in talks on June 8 | Reuters-1.4%
• Nov 1, 2022Wheat futures tumble after Russia rejoins Black Sea grain corridor deal - Fastmarkets+7.3%
• May 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters-1.4%
• Apr 17, 2023What are the deals on Ukraine, Russia grain exports? | Reuters+7.8%

After 94 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.7% to +5.8%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-4.5%
• Nov 27, 2024How much Black Sea wheat is at risk of disruption? Grain market daily | AHDB-4.1%
• Oct 31, 2022Daily Market Wire 1 November 2022 - Grain Central+3.1%
• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+6.3%
• Aug 29, 2018U.S. grains: Wheat soars on new rumours of Russian export curbs - Manitoba Co-operator+0.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.