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A year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine pushed global crop values to decade highs, benchmark corn futures are down about 10% and wheat futures more than 20% below pre-war levels. The article says the supply fixes put in place remain fragile.
Prices have already unwound most of the war premium, so the market is more exposed to any renewed disruption to Black Sea grain flows, which would lift corn and wheat prices quickly.
reuters.comKarl PlumeMar 13, 2023After 38 past neutral geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 31 past neutral geopolitics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
