Oil rises more than $1 a barrel on tighter supply outlook

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.5%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-2.1%
• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+1.0%
• Mar 25, 2024Oil prices rise amid worsening geopolitical outlook and tighter supply | The National+4.1%
• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-8.5%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 13, 2026Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption | Reuters+1.4%
• Oct 28, 2026Arab News | Oil rises more than 1% as supply concerns persist-4.7%
• Jan 19, 2022Oil rises to 7-year high as Turkey outage adds to tight supply outlook+0.8%
• Mar 25, 2024Oil prices rise amid worsening geopolitical outlook and tighter supply | The National+1.9%
• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-9.0%