Oil settled more than $4 higher on Thursday, with December Brent at $102.31 and WTI at $92.87. The gains followed a WSJ report of additional US forces heading to the Middle East and Reuters reporting that Chinese refiners suspended oil product exports until further notice.
The combined military buildup and Chinese export suspension signal tighter global fuel supply, supporting crude and diesel prices and raising logistics costs for feed buyers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent settled over $4 higher as the US force buildup report combined with China's suspension of oil product exports, tightening perceived product supply.