
The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers association attributes the diesel price jump to four drivers: crude costs, lost global refining capacity of about 3.2 million bpd since 2020, reduced Russian refinery throughput after sanctions, and Europe's reliance on Russian diesel imports.
Structural refining shortfalls and Russian supply losses point to sustained high diesel prices, raising trucking and feed delivery costs for buyers.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.