Why Oil Prices Are Suddenly Jumping

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices jump 4% as fresh US-Iran fighting stokes supply fears+9.6%
• Sep 16, 2019Oil prices jump as attack on Saudi plant jolts supply | AP News+5.8%
• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-0.3%
• May 27, 2026Canola prices are rising on forecasts of high oil prices by the end of the year.+0.7%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-3.0%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Oil prices jump 4% as fresh US-Iran fighting stokes supply fears+10.8%
• Sep 16, 2019Oil prices jump as attack on Saudi plant jolts supply | AP News+6.6%
• Jul 2, 2018What higher oil prices mean for OPEC and the U.S. | Brookings-3.1%
• May 27, 2026Canola prices are rising on forecasts of high oil prices by the end of the year.-1.3%
• Sep 19, 2019Oil prices rise as Saudi supply risks come into focus-2.4%