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Oil settled down more than 7% on Monday after Iran avoided disrupting Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic and instead attacked a U.S. base in Qatar. Brent closed down $5.53 at $71.48 a barrel, its steepest one-day drop since August 2022.
A large drop in crude removes the Gulf supply-disruption premium, sharply lowering diesel and energy input costs for feed producers.
reuters.comArathy SomasekharJun 23, 2025After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 51 past bearish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -8.2% to +3.9%), and -2.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Brent closed down $5.53 to $71.48 on June 23 after Iran's attack on a US base in Qatar left Hormuz tanker traffic untouched, which removed the supply-risk premium and caused the move.
Brent fell $5.53 (over 7%) on June 23 as Iran's retaliation spared tankers and Hormuz flows, removing the supply-disruption premium that drove the 5-day drop.
Brent fell $5.53 to $71.48 on June 23, its steepest one-day drop since 2022, after Iran's retaliation spared tankers and Hormuz, removing the supply risk premium; this was the largest single-day contributor to the 5-day decline.
