Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-8.5%
• Nov 22, 2024Oil gains more than 5% for the week as Ukraine war intensifies-3.0%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+0.8%
• Jun 26, 2019Trump's sanctions cut more OPEC oil output than OPEC itself | Reuters-2.8%
• Feb 24, 2022Oil tops $105/bbl after Russia attacks Ukraine | Reuters+20.2%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• May 27, 2019Oil up more than 1% on Mideast tensions and supply cuts-9.0%
• Nov 22, 2024Oil gains more than 5% for the week as Ukraine war intensifies-1.7%
• Nov 14, 2025Oil settles up more than 2% as Russian port suspends oil exports after Ukrainian attack | Reuters+1.5%
• Jun 26, 2019Trump's sanctions cut more OPEC oil output than OPEC itself | Reuters-4.7%
• Feb 24, 2022Oil tops $105/bbl after Russia attacks Ukraine | Reuters+18.2%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 27, 2025Oil climbs more than 2% after Trump cancels Chevron's Venezuela licence-3.5%
• Feb 24, 2022Ukraine fallout: Diesel surges more than crude before falling back - FreightWaves+25.9%
• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.9%
• Dec 7, 2018OPEC and Russia agree to slash oil production | CNN Business+1.1%
• Mar 29, 2019Oil prices rise amid OPEC's ongoing supply cuts, U.S. sanctions+2.1%