
OPEC and Russia agreed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day from world markets, with OPEC members cutting 800,000 bpd and non-OPEC producers an additional 400,000 bpd for six months from January. US crude spiked nearly 5% to about $54 a barrel on the news.
The coordinated cut is a major supply-side tightening that lifts crude prices. Higher oil prices raise diesel and energy costs for feed mills and can support biofuel demand for vegetable oils.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.