Oil climbs more than 2% after Trump cancels Chevron's Venezuela licence

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack+2.7%
• Dec 10, 2025Oil settles higher after US seizes tanker off Venezuela's coast-5.1%
• Jun 26, 2019Trump's sanctions cut more OPEC oil output than OPEC itself | Reuters-2.8%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.2%
• May 8, 2018Oil closes down 2.4% on extreme volume after Trump pulls US out of Iran deal+0.4%

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack+0.7%
• Dec 10, 2025Oil settles higher after US seizes tanker off Venezuela's coast-4.6%
• Jun 26, 2019Trump's sanctions cut more OPEC oil output than OPEC itself | Reuters-4.7%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.8%
• May 8, 2018Oil closes down 2.4% on extreme volume after Trump pulls US out of Iran deal+3.6%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Dec 1, 2025Oil climbs more than 1% on OPEC action, Ukraine attack+1.5%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil prices jump and shares drop after Trump threatens more Iran strikes-2.9%
• Apr 2, 2026US crude jumps more than 11%, Brent nearly 8% after Trump vows more attacks on Iran | Reuters-2.9%
• Apr 2, 2026Oil price jumps and markets slide after Trump warning to Iran | Oil | The Guardian-2.9%
• Jul 24, 2017Saudis Focus on Oil-Export Curbs as Libya, Nigeria Pump More - Bloomberg+8.2%